Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
