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PHEVs emit nearly 5x greater global warming emissions than lab-reported data indicate, according to a recent report.

Growing Discrepancy In Official and Real-World CO2 Output

Statistics reveals that PHEVs release only 19% less CO₂ than traditional petrol and diesel cars, according to analysis conducted by a non-profit organization. This contrasts significantly with lab estimates, which assumed a 75% decrease in pollution.

Analysts examined data from in-vehicle fuel consumption meters of eight hundred thousand vehicles sold in Europe from 2021 and 2023. They found that real-world CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times higher than lab estimates, up from 3.5 times in 2021.

“Real-world CO2 output are rising, while official emissions are falling,” said a senior analyst participating in the report. “That gap is growing and creates a significant problem. Consequently, PHEVs emit almost as heavily as petrol vehicles.”

Primary Factors Behind the Emissions Gap

Analysts linked the majority of the difference to overestimates of the “electric driving share” – the ratio of miles driven in battery power compared to overall mileage. The team found that just a quarter of travel was completed in electric mode, whereas lab assumptions assumed over four-fifths.

Additionally, when running in electric mode, pollution amounts were well above official projections. This happened because electric motors were insufficiently powerful sufficient to operate alone, leading to combustion motors burning fossil fuels for nearly a third of the travel completed in electric mode.

Policy and Financial Implications

According to estimates, the underestimation of PHEV CO2 output allowed several major automaker companies to escape over €5bn in fines from 2021 and 2023, by falsely simplifying adherence with EU fleet-average CO₂ standards.

Furthermore, drivers of PHEVs would spend about €500 extra per year in running costs than would be estimated under lab conditions.

“The bold claims that manufacturers like to make about their PHEV vehicles are clearly far from the mark,” stated a transport analyst. “Consumers are being duped into believing that by purchasing a PHEV, they are benefiting the planet and cutting money. In reality, PHEVs are only slightly improved than standard petrol and diesel vehicles in terms of fuel consumption, CO₂ emissions, and running expenses.”

Policy Debate and Automotive Pressure

Hybrid cars have lately been brought again into policy debates as carmakers have pressed the EU to weaken CO₂ standards. A proposed ban on sales of new internal combustion cars in 2035 has faced intense lobbying from the car sector and opposition from EU countries with significant automotive manufacturing.

Several senior officials have suggested PHEVs as a possible “compromise” option to include in the legislation.

An external energy economics expert, who was not involved with the study, called the report a “highly valuable addition” after years in which parts of the automotive industry claimed there was too little data to properly assess actual CO2 output.

“These findings demonstrate, beyond any doubt, that the gap between lab and actual PHEV energy use and CO₂ emissions is much, much greater than for gasoline or conventional cars,” the expert stated. “Any regulatory changes regarding PHEVs should be made with utmost caution and considering that evidence.”