Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Serious Obstacles in the Selection Process

Several members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.