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Initially, the former US president appeared to adopt a resolute stance on the Ukrainian conflict. After making warnings of "significant consequences" during the summer in case Vladimir Putin persisted hindering ceasefire negotiations, the former president eventually imposed substantial sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, these major energy companies. This move substantially affected Putin's capacity to fund his aggression in the region.

Yet, with his newly presented 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, reportedly developed by both nations' diplomats without Ukraine's or EU participation, Trump has seemingly gone back to his Russia-friendly position.

Benefiting Aggression

The former president's initiative would in practice reward Putin for attacking Ukraine while placing the country's democratic system in danger. Although ringing proclamations that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", large portions of the proposal in reality undermine that same autonomy. This constitutes a Russian ideal would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his business background, the former president seems to consider the war as a simple border issue, implying ceding Russia a portion of Ukrainian soil will appease the ruler. But, Putin's war is not only about dominating a damaged swath of industrial-devastated land in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about the nation's political system – and Putin's apparent desire to destroy it so it no longer functions as an attractive model for the Russian citizens of the democratic leadership that Putin's deepening authoritarian rule denies them.

Land Surrenders

Although freezing in status the already divided Ukrainian provinces of these areas, the plan would force the nation to abandon the whole Donetsk region. Aside from benefiting Russia with land that its troops have been unable to seize in over a ten years of warfare, this giveaway would render Ukrainian defenses severely compromised.

Donetsk is the place of the nation's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the entrenched defensive positions that are a essential impediment to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these defenses, leaving Russian forces a clear route to the capital if he later choose to resume the conflict.

Defense Reductions

Then, in a action that would make additional hostilities easier for Russia, Trump would force the nation to diminish the scale of its armed forces from their present 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a limit of this lower number. Notably, the proposal places no such limits on Russian forces.

In what appears as a gesture to Russia's campaign to portray Ukraine's chosen by the people government as radicals, the proposal declares: "All Nazi doctrine and activities must be rejected and prohibited." Seemingly to underscore this point, it demands that "Ukraine will hold elections in three months" of a peace deal. At the same time, the proposal sets no obligation that Putin jeopardize his dictatorship by conducting democratic processes in his own country.

Defense Assurances

Certainly, the proposal includes the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in law its policy of peaceful relations towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". Yet considering that Putin has broken comparable agreements in the past – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia committed to recognize Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for relinquishing its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow agreed to a halt in fighting and a return of captured land in the region to Ukrainian control – how should anyone believe this commitment this time?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on western defense commitments. Although the proposal promises a "immediate unified military response" if the Russian Federation restart its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive reliable defense commitments", the specifics range from fuzzy to alarming. The plan would not just block the nation accession to NATO but also prohibit member states from stationing forces on Ukrainian territory, thereby preventing the security presence, likely commanded by European powers, on which Ukraine had been counting to stop Russia from replenishing his reduced military, restocking, and resuming aggression.

Global Concern

An additional parallel deal reportedly would offer Ukraine with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any later "major, deliberate, and continuous military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an attack endangering the stability and safety of the allied countries." This implies a defense action. However unlike a strong Ukrainian military – Ukraine's most reliable deterrent against additional hostilities – the credibility of the parallel accord would rely on the commitment of alliance members, like Trump, to react with force to Russia's aggression, an action they have {not